Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are
from the patterned world.

Compiled 27 July 2025

The three limbs of climate change- extreme heat, extreme drought and
flash flooding have led to increasing food prices around the world.

The Barcelona Supercomputer centre BSC has produced the following map
of these food price spikes.
See
https://www.bsc.es/news/bsc-news/countries-across-the-world-see-food-p
rice-shocks-climate-extremes-research-involving-bsc-shows

TROPICS
TC WIPHA affected northern Philippine floods, killing at least three
people. Then it lashed Hong Kong and China's Guangdong province. It
then unleashed severe flooding across the northern half of Vietnam. .
Tropical storm Francisco formed near Japan's southernmost islands,
while Typhoon Co-May raked the northern Philippine, and TC KROSA
formed further east.

WEATHER ZONES
Rain accumulation above shows well defined SPCZ between Solomon
Islands and Tuvalu/Tokelau/Samoa with another arm of convergence from
Fiji to Tonga to Southern Cooks where it has peak intensity.
Also, dry zones in Coral Sea and over eastern South Island.

The wind accumulation shows gales with L3 near Lord Howe Island, a
possible mini-squash zone between Lau /Tonga /Niue and windy squalls
over Southern Cooks.
Also, a zone of light winds around Vanuatu and SE of South Island.

LOWS and HIGHS

HIGH H1 has brought a week of wintry frosty weather /light winds to NZ
and is now moving off to the east /southeast. It is pushing a large
Low L1 on its eastern side off to the southeast. There are some
min-squash zones on its northern side.

LOW2 has been blocked by HI1and its associated frontal zone has been
lingering in the Tasman Sea. L2 should travel of to the south and the
associated frontal zone is expected to cross Noumea on Monday, Fiji to
New Zealand on Tuesday and Wednesday, then Tonga on Thursday - maybe
with a small supporting Low. Then fade as it moves further east.
Avoid.

HIGH H2 is expected to travel east along 20S - this is almost as far
north as these Highs get. It should move across the Coral Sea /Noumea
area mid-week then fade.

LOW L3 has an interesting expected-track. Coming from a low that
deepens south of Albany on Monday, it is expected to get steered
across central Australia as a weakening feature on Tuesday and
Wednesday, then to deepen rapidly whilst crossing Tasman Sea on
Thursday and reach another peak in intensity below 990hPa when
crossing Northland on Friday. Avoid.

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