Contradicting forecasts

For now we’ve only had beautiful summer weather, but we’re still checking forecasts twice a day and compare different forecast models whenever we have internet (otherwise we just have SSB and only get the GFS model). The extreme contradiction between the GFS and the ECMWF model is almost comic. We used to say that the GFS overreacts and the ECMWF is more often correct, but recently they’ve been off as well. For now they have alternated in predicting heavy weather–which has been canceled each time as it got closer: so far we’ve seen no more than 25 knots this summer, usually it’s calm or just a hint of a breeze…
Here’s an example for the difference in forecasts for next week–let’s hope it’ll be nothing in the end, but we’re never far away from our cyclone holes (the short distances between Fiji’s islands are an advantage here).

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